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Is a Beat Likely for Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) in Q4 Earnings?

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Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Jan 23, after the closing bell.

The company’s shares have risen 46.4% in the past year against the industry’s 1.1% decline. The S&P 500 Index gained 21.3% in the same time frame.

In the last reported quarter, ISRG delivered an earnings surprise of 7.58%. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 3.03%.

Zacks Investment Research
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Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ISRG’s revenues is currently pegged at $1.93 billion, indicating a 16.5% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $1.47 per share, indicating a 19.5% year-over-year increase.

Factors to Note

The Instruments & Accessories segment is likely to have witnessed a strong fourth-quarter performance on the back of rising da Vinci procedure volume as seen in the past few quarters. However, an unfavorable currency movement is expected to have partially offset the gains from recovering demand in procedures. Meanwhile, a rise in the proportion of recurring revenues buoys well for ISRG.

Moreover, the recovery in China on the back of strong procedure growth following COVID-related setbacks in the past year is likely to have boosted sales in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

Earlier this month, ISRG announced preliminary results for the fourth quarter. Net sales are estimated to be at least $1.93 billion, indicating a 17% year-over-year increase. Per management, da Vinci procedures grew approximately 21% worldwide in the to-be-reported quarter. The company recorded sales of $1.14 billion from instruments and accessories, implying year-over-year growth of 22%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Instruments & Accessories’ revenues is pegged at $1.13 billion, indicating an 18.9% improvement year over year.

Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci capital placements are likely to be on the lower side due to continued supply-chain challenges impacting the availability of semiconductor components and growing capital spending pressure on hospitals amid rising inflationary pressure.

The FDA’s approval for the use of the da Vinci SP surgical system for simple prostatectomy as a representative procedure in April should have expanded its application in urologic surgical procedures. The impact of this launch is likely to be reflected in the fourth-quarter results. Moreover, the continued launch of the da Vinci single-port in Japan should have brought additional revenues during the quarter.

Preliminary results estimated 415 system placements during the fourth quarter, implying year-over-year growth of 12%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the da Vinci system’s salesin the United States is pegged at 252 units.

However, Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci capital placements are likely to have benefited from rising demand outside the country. The company placed 153 systems in the third quarter of 2023 compared with 130 in the prior-year quarter in ex-U.S. markets.

The single port platform’s growth is expected to have been driven by additional clinical indications and clearances in markets beyond the United States and Korea. System revenues are estimated to increase 6% to $480 million during the fourth quarter, per the preliminary results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for system revenues outside the United States is pinned at $205 million, indicating a 13.9% year-over-year improvement.

During the second quarter, Intuitive Surgical launched its Ion, beginning with the United Kingdom. The availability of Ion catheters in Europe is likely to have brought additional revenues during the fourth quarter.

The company may also provide a view on the uptake in the region. ISRG’s digital products like the Intuitive Hub and the recently launched Case Insights are likely to have shown rising adoption.

However, government policy changes in China, higher logistics costs amid supply-chain challenges and rising inflationary pressure are likely to have hurt sales and increased expenses.

Earnings Beat Likely

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Stryker this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: ISRG has an Earnings ESP of +0.39% at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some other medical stocks worth considering as these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

RxSight (RXST - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.85% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company’s shares have surged 251.8% in the past year. RXST’s earnings beat estimates in the last reported quarter. RxSight has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 18.25%.

SiBone (SIBN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

The stock has risen 5.9% in the past year. SIBN’s earnings beat estimates in the last reported quarter. SiBone has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 24.21%.

Nevro (NVRO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The stock has fallen 52.2% in the past year. NVRO’s earnings beat estimates in the last reported quarter. Nevro has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.87%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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